The last one of any "merit" was I think in September 2010 but in all honesty, having dealt with Hugo in 1989 and Marilyn in 1995 which were direct hits of major magnitude and created severe damage, all the rest in between and since have been negligible in comparison and recovery was swift and there was minimal interruption.

Google "Hurricane Earl 2010"

It was a tropical storm when it passed over the USVI and PR, then it was upgraded to a hurricane along the way.

The largest huricanes come in September and early October. Yes the season has started but if you look at the number of hurricanes per week the reap peak starts around the second week of September.

Enjoy your vacation.

By the way it took over 8 months to get back to anything like normal after 1995!

billd

Smart move, purchasing trip insurance. July is "normally" OK. In fact, I think it's the best month for a family vacation--less crowds, better rates on accomdations.
The storms start rolling past toward the end of August. Even if a big storm is not forecasted to hit the VI, but will plow through the general area, airline travel will be impacted. For example, last year flights were cancelled/ delayed for a two day period. AA, as well as the major carriers, offered "free of charge changes" four days in advance of the storms arival. The good news was the storm didn't arrive with significant punch. The bad news is some vacationers never arrived either. (stuck in ariports around the southeast.) So if the Airlines are offering "FREE" flight changes for another date, take them up on the offer.(Airlines never offer free anything unless they are predicting something bad) And, if you are routed through San Juan or Miami, then you could be stuck big time until the airlines re-group. So, keep an eye out for your hub location as well as the VI.

So if you are into statistics here you go....
This gives it to you by week!
Storm History USVI

To the original poster: In 2011 both Irene (Aug 21) and Maria (Sept 11) caused heavy sea surge. In 2010 Earl (Aug 30) and Otto (Oct 4) caused heavy sea surge. There are still about fifteen boats on the shores of St John, St Thomas, Hassel and Water Island as a result of those four systems in 2010 & 2011.

2008 Omar (Oct 4)
1999 backward Lenny (Nov 13)
1998 Georges (Sept 24)
1996 Bertha (July 9)
1995 Marilyn (Sept 16)
1989 Hugo (Sept 18)

Everyone of those caused a disruption to normal daily life. Blu4u is giving very sound advice, because maybe the biggest inconvenience for visitors is that once here, you can't get a flight out sometimes for many days if we get hit. Some people tend to sugar coat the dangers because it isn't going to be a record Cat rating, or a direct hit. But a near miss of a named system can mess up the transportation system, besides affecting the clarity of the sea.

Rocky Dock
Water Island

RockyDock wrote: rBut a near miss of a named system can mess up the transportation system ...

Which is why visitors to the Caribbean traveling during hurricane season are advised to take out trip insurance. The cost is minimal but the caveat is to read the terms carefully and pick the coverage which fits your particular situation.

Thanks for the replies. I do believe that most tourist destinations have a tendency to downplay anything that they think may negatively impact the business (I'm from central Florida, I know about tourist destinations), including weather, strikes, crime, shortages, etc. It's understandable. For instance, the recent shooting in Charlotte Amalie (at the car wash) was carried by USA Today in the state-by-state news area. If it hadn't been for that nobody else would have heard about it, and there was no reason to make it a headline story or blurb about crime in the Caribbean. It happens everywhere. Small towns, tourist towns, oil towns, mining towns, no place is immune from it. However, I do believe also that most people who go on vacation to places that are primarily tourist destinations are easily shocked by "bad things" that happen. I think it's a psychological thing; tourists are paying a lot of money to enjoy freedom and relaxation, basically to escape from reality. When reality rears it's sometimes ugly head, it's just kind of a slap in the face.

Anyway, thanks for the info. I do have "cancel for any reason" trip insurance, and it was NOT cheap. But cheaper than having to cancel and lose the whole wad. We do certainly realize that July is hurricane season, but we balanced that with the fact that it's off-season and that statistically the "best" chances for a hurricane come later in the year. We're just going to keep our eyes on things (airlines, weather, etc), but once we get there, please forgive me if I start praying for a storm the day we're supposed to leave. I can think of about one million things worse than being "stuck" on a tropical island in the Caribbean!!

I don't think you want to be praying for a storm so you are 'stuck' afterwards -- the aftermath of storms like Hugo and Marilynn are certainly not a time anyone would like to repeat. Destruction is so widespread and the loss of homes, boats and personal possessions is devastating to the whole community - the sense of shock and survival is overwhelming.
There are lines for everything - water lines, ice lines, FEMA lines, gasoline lines [ and that was before everyone had generators like they do now], lines at any store that is open, lines at the banks when they finally open, lines at the propane office and the only line you would want to be in is the American Airlines - but there are few if any commercial flights since the airport is taken over by Federal and Military flights bringing help and supplies. There is a curfew from dusk until dawn with troops enforcing it - there is no electricity for weeks or months - there are downed trees, power poles and mountains of debris from destroyed homes from one end of the island to the other ---- it is a daily struggle to recover and rebuild that affects every single person here.
Please don't pray for any storms - Many Virgin Islanders have a strong belief in the power of prayer - we actually have Hurricane Supplication Day here when the island joins together in prayers to spare us from these terrible events.

I don't even like saying the word when speaking, because I don't want to curse the season.

I don't believe in the "power of prayer" but I firmly believe in hoping for the best and planning for the worst. Much of our "luck" comes from acknowledging reality and making smart choices based upon the facts at hand. The more facts you have, the better choices you can make. So, keep on eye on the weather. Pack light. Stay out of dicey hoods. Wear sunscrean. Don't drink and drive. I 'd rather you have a great time on your VI vacation, go home safe, tell all friends and neighbors about your fabulous trip, and come back next year for longer stay, than get rained out and be stuck sleeping on the floor inside the SJU airport for 4 days. Or arrive on island paying $500 per day and not be able to enjoy the lovely beaches because of storm run-off. As you get closer to your trip date, check out the site "storm carib" for forecasts. July is good time to visit and with trip insurance, you've covered all the bases.

I DO believe in the "power of prayer", 🙂 but I firmly believe in hoping for the best and planning for the worst. In July trip insurance is a good thing. Some of our best trips have been in July.