I have heard troubled words from another forum and looking at the radar it looks like there is a pretty messy system in that area.

Now of course many people want to paint a sunny forcast in paradise but I also would love to hear the truth on what is goign on down there.

www.caribwx.com has a detailed forecast. . . . . . . . it doesn't look good for the next week.

It has rained every day for a week on my hill on STX. It's not raining all the time, of course, but we have had measurable rain at my house 5 days out of the last 7. And it's been more cloudy than sunny.

Canceling trips? I wouldn't,there's always the bars.

Can anyone give the local forecast for the next few days. I have seen 50% rain for the next 10 days, but I dont know if that is normal or not. I cant cancel my trip and I also think that if it has been raining so much that the system should be moving out soon.

Updated Fri21, 10am

Sea surface temperature at the Wreck of the Rhone 80 degrees courtesy of Blue Water Divers.

Currently: Virtually the entire Caribbean basin is under cloud cover, but the heaviest clouds and showers lie in the E Caribbean between 62W-68W and between 12N-14-30N. Another area of heavy rain just S of PuertoRIco to 15N, and covering the Spanish & US VirginIslands. Over the Leewards some clear skies and some squalls, with the heaviest cloud cover across Antigua-Monserrat and in the Windwards from Martinique to Venezuela.

Winds accompanying these squalls are quite high, with vessels this morning reporting winds to 50 kts S of DominicanRepublic, and satellite data indicating 30-40 kts in the Windwards. Aside from the squalls, winds are moderate, running 15-20 from the E.

Synopsis: RIDGE S of Bermuda remains in place, maintaining gradient winds over the NE Caribbean. RIDGE will get squeezed some to the E & SE over the next 5 days, but this will have little impact on conditions.

SPECIAL FEATURE: There remain a number of possible scenarios for the situation in the Caribbean. The weak LO N of Columbia yesterday dissipated, and failed to pull the moisture away from the SE Caribbean. A LO is still forecast to develop Sat22 in the SW Caribbean, near 14N80W and move slowly towards Jamaica over the weekend...causing the Warm FRONT feature over the E Caribbean to lift N-wards and away from the Windwards. This weak LO will be a cold-core, NON-tropical system, with NO tropical characteristics.

Worst weather situated along the broad TROF resembling a Warm FRONT to the E. Forecast remains for this all to lift slowly N and NE towards Hispanola-to-NE Caribbean, and the outlook remains mostly unchnaged as well, with a LO forming near the E end of the Warm FRONT / TROF (will probably form just N of the VirginIslands and result in IMPROVING weather conditions) and moving NE of the NE Caribbean by Wed26.

Subtle changes to the forecast include a somewhat slower movement of the systems, and a weaker LO resulting in a slightly lower wind field from the Bahamas to PuertoRico.

There is some question as to the eventual track of the whole mess. If the system in the NE US squeezes the RIDGE far-enough S&E, the RIDGE could keep the Caribbean system farther West and closer to the Bahamas as it moves N early next week, resulting in windy, more squally weather in the SE Bahamas and T&C.

Forecast:

Precip: Precipitation in the E Caribbean will be spread over a larger area, but be less-intense than forecast yesterday. Still, heavy rain will fall over much of the E Caribbean from time to time, with rain gradually moving from S to N over the weekend and into Mon24. Hopefully most of the rain will be carried N of the all Islands by Tue25.

Seas:

NE Caribbean - 6' from the E or ENE with a 6-sec period, possibly increasing to 9' if winds pick-up Sun23.

SE Caribbean - 4' from the ENE with a 6-sec period.

Winds:

Fri21, 8am: VI 080@20, LW 080@20, WW 100@16.

Fri21, 8pm: VI 080@21, LW 080@20, WW 090@14.

Sat22, 8am: VI 080@21, LW 090@19, WW 130@18.

Forecast for Sat22 thru next week has large margin for error due to LO(s) in the Caribbean.

Well, I think that's somewhat positive. The idea that it will hopefully clear out by Tuesday works for me. I'm headed to St. Thomas on Sunday and will be there for a week. So I'm hoping for some sunshine!

Thanks!

Just returned from a week in St John last Saturday. It rained at some point every day... sometimes down pouring in the morning / sometimes at night. But there were still times of sun and we all have a pretty nice tan now! So can't complain much! Would have certainly asked for better weather but it was a great trip regardless! We rented a boat with a captain one day and "chased the sun". We didn't hit any rain all day, although we could see it in the distance!

Our experience in STJ the week of 5/8 was much like Sunshine's. The rain prevented us from doing what we wanted only twice. Both times we tried to catch the live music at the Banana Deck, next to the Stone Terrace, it poured and they had to cancel the band as it is very open-air. Never did hear any good live music, but we nonetheless really enjoyed our vacation.